The Trump administration faces a major legislative test today with the health-care vote, and for those attempting to trade the event, Bloomberg’s Cameron Crise notes that risk-takers need to ask themselves two questions…
1) Do I have an edge?
At this point the vote is too close to call. Unless you have someone in DC counting votes alongside the whip, the honest answer is almost certainly “no”
2) Does this vote matter?
On any sort of strategic macro basis, the answer is also probably “no.” Sure, if you manage health-care stocks, today is a big deal. Other than that, the failure or passage of the vote ultimately will say little about the prospects for tax reform, which is the issue of most concern to financial markets.
Health care was always going to be a contentious issue, with both moderates and hard-core conservatives having reservations about the bill (for very different reasons). Tax reform is something that most of the GOP can get behind, on the other hand, even if some of the details have yet to be determined.
Moreover, there is a relatively low expectation among investors that tax reforms will pass this year. An implied delay from a health-care failure should increase the discount factor on tax reform only slightly.
In any event, the results of the vote are likely to come after U.S. markets close, so it seems as if we should prepare for a day of headline-watching that should provide plenty of noise but probably little signal.